Week 10 - Rivalries Expose Pretenders

The emails have started again. You know the ones I am talking about. They are the ones that consistently question how an undefeated Illinois team could possibly be listed below a North Carolina team with 3 losses, including a loss that came this week. There are a couple of responses to this. First, the loss earlier in the week did cause North Carolina to actually lose rating points for the week as a whole. Illinois, therefore, did gain on them in the rankings while pulling even further away from the #3 team, which was Kansas (though that will change again after Monday night's loss to Texas Tech). Second, the performance of Illinois in its wins against Michigan and Wisconsin was not something that shouted out the praises of the team. Sure they came from behind in the Michigan game and yes, they beat a Wisconsin team bent on revenge, yet Illinois was not the dominant team that they had been just a few weeks before which begs the question if they are getting tired.

Another factor in this question is the age old battle about who has the better conference, top to bottom, the ACC or the Big Ten. The MRI has consistently had the ACC as the better conference on average. Looking at the ACC-Big Ten challenge earlier this year, the ACC was the dominant league. The Big Ten has a core of 3 very good teams, and then there are 4 teams which teeter on the edge before you hit the bottom four which have truly been terrible this season. Everyone thought that the ACC would turn in the same mediocre league this year with the additions of Miami and Virginia Tech. Instead, the new additions have shocked everyone and Miami is actually riding its time on the bubble, sitting just out of many predictions for the NCAA tournament with just four weeks to play. The league from top to bottom is better than the Big Ten and with the addition of Boston College next season, the disparity could get even bigger.

So for all of you out there that wonder about the formula and my sanity, let's just wait a few more weeks. The good news for Illini fans is that I did predict that all teams would win a game before the last team lost a game. Well, Savannah State finished their season oh-fer, meaning that for my prediction to hold up, Illinois would need to run the table. Consider me on the band wagon.

The second week of the tournament predictions proved somewhat more difficult than the first though I was able to find some information which made the job a little bit easier. Oklahoma State is able to play in Oklahoma City as the Big XII is the official host at the site. This made the pod system a little easier to assemble this week. In addition, my placement of DePaul in the Chicago Region last week was not allowed as they are the host team. Someone should explain how they still are the host team when they play their home games at the Allstate Arena and the tournament is held at the United Center. The same goes for Davidson, who plays in a tiny gym in North Carolina while the tournament games will be held at the Charlotte Coliseum. Granted, fan base for these teams would be a lot greater than normal in these cities, but tell me that wouldn't be the same truth for Oklahoma City and the Cowboys or Chicago and Illinois.

Some thoughts and remember that there are still four weeks left:

• Only a few teams either gained or lost spots this week though some are definitely trending their way out of the tournament. Minnesota's two losses this week dropped them from a seven seed in the first week to an eight this week. While that seems like a small drop, it moved them closer to a large pack of teams closely ranked in the MRI. This could signal a big drop out of the dance is coming. At-large teams dropping out of the dance this week: Only New Mexico, who was replaced by Pacific from the Big West.


• Pacific, you shout? They are ranked in the Top 25 overall in the polls. How are they a bubble team? Through the magic of the rankings, the MRI still believes that Utah State is the best team in the conference. Pacific has won both regular season meetings between the two teams. There is a cliche that it is very difficult to beat the same team three times in one season. This myth was actually proven false by the folks at ESPN during the football playoffs this year. I would tend to believe the same would hold true for college basketball. The first two meetings were home and home and Utah State battled well on its home court. It remains to be seen what will happen when they potentially meet in the Big West finals, this year held in Anaheim, CA.


• The Missouri Valley conference fills out 4 dance cards again this week. With still plenty of basketball left, I am counting on at least two of these tickets falling to other conferences in the final weeks. SW Missouri State and Northern Iowa are barely clinging to their time on the bubble. All it will take is one impressive win by an ACC or Big East school to knock them out. If they do continue to hang on though, it won't be without precedent. Last season, Wichita State was able to be ranked in the final MRI tournament numbers and was left sitting at home. The Missouri Valley has definitely taken a step up in recent years to warrant a look for more than just 2 bids. This comes at the expense of the Atlantic 10, a once powerhouse conference who has lost its luster. The only hope for a second bid is if George Washington would lose in the conference tournament finals. Otherwise, it may only be the conference winner in the NCAA.


• There is hope for the A-10. Charlotte will move next year and join the conference, adding a team which can compete year in and year out. A couple of more wins on their resume and they are quickly closing on the Top 25 in the MRI. Look for Charlotte to make one of those Sweet Sixteen runs even when everyone else has counted them out.


• Boston University took care of business over the course of the week and took out Vermont. That was Vermont's first loss in the conference and it gives the Terriers the big win that they were looking for. It won't hurt their chances to make a big run and not lose until possibly the conference tournament championship game. Boston University is definitely deserving of the look.


• Just a reminder that the regions will be "seeded" at the beginning of the tournament. That means in my scenario that the regions meeting in the final four would be East vs. West, and Midwest vs. South. This leaves open the possibility that
  UNC and Illinois could meet in the final that everyone is looking for.


• I ran my simulation on the brackets as I produced them and once again chose 40 runs as a good representation for the run. The teams to make the final four the most often were the #1 seeds in each bracket. They were not without upsets. North Carolina had the easiest time by far in its bracket. It only missed the Final Four fifteen of the 40 times and those times were split among 6 other teams. This week their main competition was Michigan State who scored a 6. No bracket had 10 teams make the Final Four like last week. The South battled it out among 6 team with a fairly even distribution between Kansas, Louisville, Connecticut, and Florida. The best performance of a non #1 team was by Wake Forest this week. They won the simulation in their conference 11 times to Oklahoma State's 19.


• So who will win? I entered the Top 8 teams based on the 40 round sim that could possibly meet in the Regional Finals. I ran the simulation 50 more times and kept track of just the winners. And the answer: North Carolina. The Tar Heels triumphed 21 times to Illinois's 12, which shows that Illinois is gaining a little from last week on the Tar Heels. All of the eight teams won at least once and the winner of the East-West Final Four game won 29 times, meaning that the toughest test may come earlier in the tournament for those teams.

 
© 7:38 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Week 9 - The Bubble Forms and Tournament Week 1

It has been quite a couple of weeks since the MRI last graced the pages of Sitting Courtside. The one thing I can say is true is that no team is immune to a lapse right now. North Carolina has been beaten, not in the last two weeks, but they have been beaten. Illinois has had some scary moments when they have looked less than the #1 voted team in the land. In the land of the major conference teams, the bottom has consistently been knocking on the doors of the top teams and coming hard at them, winning some, losing some, but playing hard and upsets are bound to happen.

All this means that we are most likely in for one of the best tournaments in the last few years. With all the teams very close, it will become harder and harder to predict the outcome of all, let alone half, of the tournament games.

However, this week, I endeavor on my task as I do each year and attempt to pick the field of 65. This year, it will look a little different. I did not go straight down the numbers this week, but rather attempted to place the one-bid conference winners a little more strategically. I still placed all at-large winners based on the numbers, but some highly ranked conference leaders were placed lower in the bracket than they would have been when I did this in the past.

And what was I left with are the projections for the first week. It may look like some teams are getting a real big benefit but that is how the numbers stack up at this point. Right now, there are a lot of teams looking in from the outside and they are all just one big win away from getting over the hump and in.

Some thoughts:

• The tough Missouri Valley conference really hasn't gotten the attention that it has in the past few years. Based on the numbers, a whopping four teams would make the tournament field this week, edging out some conference leaders (by record) such as Pacific. I have no beliefs that all four teams will make it in but the Missouri Valley has played well enough as a conference within season and out to have consideration for more than one team in the tournament. It will be a big test to see if they can get three.


• Boston University benefits from the strength of a team like Vermont. It is conceivable that Vermont has played impressively enough that they would be considered for an at-large bid should they lose in the conference tournament. The team that is most likely to pick them off would be Boston University. BU is still playing well on its own and could warrant some consideration from the committee. They need to keep winning though. Their losses have come against some good teams, including a strong Holy Cross team which is looking to make history and warrant consideration for a Patriot league team to win an at-large bid if an upset occurs. Their other losses have been Boston College (undefeated), Massachusetts (upset city), Vermont (conference leader), and an up and coming Northeastern team. The Terriers can definitely do themselves some good with a win against Vermont later this week when they get the Catamounts at home.


• I seem to do this every year. Somehow, I stick Texas Tech and Bobby Knight somewhere where he is going to be at a distinct disadvantage. Some years, they were set to face Indiana in the tournament. Other years, like this one, I have Texas Tech placed to go to Indianapolis for their first round game. Don't get me wrong. There are still people in Indiana that love Bobby Knight. Still, it is difficult to go home again and chances are that if Knight's team plays like it did against Iowa on the road, they are in for a long day that first round against Vandy.


• Just a reminder that the regions will be "seeded" at the beginning of the tournament. That means in my scenario that the regions meeting in the final four would be East vs. West (Potential Duke v. North Carolina Round 4), and Midwest vs. South. This leaves open the possibility that UNC and Illinois could meet in the final that everyone is looking for. It also means that Louisville has the chance to sneak up on everyone and pull a big shocker should they get that far.


• I ran my simulation on the brackets as I produced them. I figured that 40 times would give me a good representation, at least for the first run. The teams to make the final four the most often were the #1 seeds in each bracket. They were not without upsets. North Carolina had the easiest time by far in its bracket. It only missed the Final Four fifteen of the 40 times and those times were split among 5 other teams. That said, the biggest competition then for the Tar Heels were Kansas (5) and Florida (6). Meanwhile, in the South, 10 teams were listed on the Final Four line in the simulation. Louisville was the team only 15 times and met stiff competition from Arizona and Kentucky. Before you rule out a Cinderella, Vermont was able to make the last line in the region twice. The best performance of a non #1 team was by Washington. They won the simulation in their conference 11 times to Duke's 17.


• So who will win? I entered the Top 8 teams based on the 40 round sim that could possibly meet in the Regional Finals (For example, Arizona had 7 wins, but will meet Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen and so was not in the final sim). I ran the simulation 50 more times and kept track of just the winners. And the answer: North Carolina. The Tar Heels triumphed 23 times to Illinois's 11. All of the eight teams won at least once and the winner of the East-West Final Four game won 33 times, meaning that the toughest test may come earlier in the tournament for those teams.

Keep on reading and watching. If you want to complain, just drop a comment or an email to bmiraski at mrisports dot com.

 
© 6:39 PM by Ben Miraski 3 Comments