Week 9 - The Bubble Forms and Tournament Week 1
It has been quite a couple of weeks since the MRI last graced the pages of Sitting Courtside. The one thing I can say is true is that no team is immune to a lapse right now. North Carolina has been beaten, not in the last two weeks, but they have been beaten. Illinois has had some scary moments when they have looked less than the #1 voted team in the land. In the land of the major conference teams, the bottom has consistently been knocking on the doors of the top teams and coming hard at them, winning some, losing some, but playing hard and upsets are bound to happen.
All this means that we are most likely in for one of the best tournaments in the last few years. With all the teams very close, it will become harder and harder to predict the outcome of all, let alone half, of the tournament games.
However, this week, I endeavor on my task as I do each year and attempt to pick the field of 65. This year, it will look a little different. I did not go straight down
the numbers this week, but rather attempted to place the one-bid conference winners a little more strategically. I still placed all at-large winners based on the numbers, but some highly ranked conference leaders were placed lower in the bracket than they would have been when I did this in the past.
And what was I left with are the projections for the
first week. It may look like some teams are getting a real big benefit but that is how the numbers stack up at this point. Right now, there are a lot of teams looking in from the outside and they are all just one big win away from getting over the hump and in.
Some thoughts:
- The tough Missouri Valley conference really hasn't gotten the attention that it has in the past few years. Based on the numbers, a whopping four teams would make the tournament field this week, edging out some conference leaders (by record) such as Pacific. I have no beliefs that all four teams will make it in but the Missouri Valley has played well enough as a conference within season and out to have consideration for more than one team in the tournament. It will be a big test to see if they can get three.
- Boston University benefits from the strength of a team like Vermont. It is conceivable that Vermont has played impressively enough that they would be considered for an at-large bid should they lose in the conference tournament. The team that is most likely to pick them off would be Boston University. BU is still playing well on its own and could warrant some consideration from the committee. They need to keep winning though. Their losses have come against some good teams, including a strong Holy Cross team which is looking to make history and warrant consideration for a Patriot league team to win an at-large bid if an upset occurs. Their other losses have been Boston College (undefeated), Massachusetts (upset city), Vermont (conference leader), and an up and coming Northeastern team. The Terriers can definitely do themselves some good with a win against Vermont later this week when they get the Catamounts at home.
- I seem to do this every year. Somehow, I stick Texas Tech and Bobby Knight somewhere where he is going to be at a distinct disadvantage. Some years, they were set to face Indiana in the tournament. Other years, like this one, I have Texas Tech placed to go to Indianapolis for their first round game. Don't get me wrong. There are still people in Indiana that love Bobby Knight. Still, it is difficult to go home again and chances are that if Knight's team plays like it did against Iowa on the road, they are in for a long day that first round against Vandy.
- Just a reminder that the regions will be "seeded" at the beginning of the tournament. That means in my scenario that the regions meeting in the final four would be East vs. West (Potential Duke v. North Carolina Round 4), and Midwest vs. South. This leaves open the possibility that UNC and Illinois could meet in the final that everyone is looking for. It also means that Louisville has the chance to sneak up on everyone and pull a big shocker should they get that far.
- I ran my simulation on the brackets as I produced them. I figured that 40 times would give me a good representation, at least for the first run. The teams to make the final four the most often were the #1 seeds in each bracket. They were not without upsets. North Carolina had the easiest time by far in its bracket. It only missed the Final Four fifteen of the 40 times and those times were split among 5 other teams. That said, the biggest competition then for the Tar Heels were Kansas (5) and Florida (6). Meanwhile, in the South, 10 teams were listed on the Final Four line in the simulation. Louisville was the team only 15 times and met stiff competition from Arizona and Kentucky. Before you rule out a Cinderella, Vermont was able to make the last line in the region twice. The best performance of a non #1 team was by Washington. They won the simulation in their conference 11 times to Duke's 17.
- So who will win? I entered the Top 8 teams based on the 40 round sim that could possibly meet in the Regional Finals (For example, Arizona had 7 wins, but will meet Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen and so was not in the final sim). I ran the simulation 50 more times and kept track of just the winners. And the answer: North Carolina. The Tar Heels triumphed 23 times to Illinois's 11. All of the eight teams won at least once and the winner of the East-West Final Four game won 33 times, meaning that the toughest test may come earlier in the tournament for those teams.
Keep on reading and watching. If you want to complain, just drop a comment or an email to bmiraski at mrisports dot com.
