Defending the MRI #2
Those of you who read my articles in
On The Field will recognize the title of this post. This will be one of the series of articles where I answer reader emails which complain about the position of their team in the rankings. I had one email from an Illini alumnus but I am choosing to answer a different email instead in this column.
The question was posed to me where George Washington was in the rankings:
"Let me offer up my first question: where's George Washington? With victories over 2 top 25 MRI teams I'd have guessed them to make it..."
Ok, that is a good question. With their performance so far, George Washington is near the top of the MRI. As of Monday morning, George Washington was 30th. Between them and the Top 25 were Florida, Oregon, Texas, and Arizona. I pointed out to the reader that at this point in the season, with so many undefeated teams, so many teams playing well, and still very few games played, it is not uncommon for a good team to be out of the Top 25, but close to getting in.
That prompted this response:
"Yes, but OBVIOUSLY if Mich St already has 2 losses and GW beat them head to head, then GW is playing better ball than Mich St and should be ranked higher. Who's Mich. St. beaten that has any credibility? GW has only beaten, oh let's see, Mich. St. AND Maryland."
Mind you, this email writer did not attend Michigan State or George Washington.
My response to all this:
There is a rule within the MRI that teams within 9 MRI points of each other are fairly well balanced in terms of skill. On a neutral court, two teams that close in my ranking system would be fairly well matched and the game could easily go in either direction. This 9 point rule was developed using statistics from the past 4 years analyzing the MRI performance in picking the winner of a game. The first question you have to ask yourself then is: "Are Michigan State and George Washington more than 9 points apart in the rankings?" Michigan State had an MRI of 70.21 while George Washington was at 66.12 so that answer is "No", which means that at this point these teams are pretty similar. After taking into account the results of Monday night's games, the two teams were even closer.
Two statistics which are key in the MRI are rebounds and turnovers. Where does Michigan State shine? On the boards. Somehow, they have out-rebounded their opponents by 9 per game. This isn't the best differential in the league, but is above average and puts the Spartans in the 90th percentile range. This should come back to earth as they play more teams with strong big men inside since they can only afford to play one of theirs at a time.
George Washington has meanwhile been average in those categories. Yes, they have beaten two of the Top 25 MRI teams, but what have they done when not playing those foes? They lost to Wake Forest in the first game of the year and that loss was by 21. They beat Morgan State, Fairfield, and Mount St. Mary's. Those are not exactly teams which strike fear into the hearts of the major conference opponents. They should have dominated these games, but did they? No. They may have won on the scoreboard, and in some cases by bigger margins, but in terms of rebounds and turnovers, they were average and didn't distinguish themselves from their opponents in any way.
Meanwhile, in Michigan State's wins, they dominated the other teams, both on the scoreboard and the backboards. It is interesting to note that in Michigan State's two losses, they got out-rebounded both times. This would be an interesting trend to keep up on.
The point is that at this time in the season, there is not much difference between Michigan State and GW based on their MRI numbers. There is also a lot of basketball to be played which should clear things up. Let's see how each performs in their next games. Michigan State plays Stanford at home on Saturday. Stanford is not a good rebounding team so far this year and of all the teams that ended the year in the Top 25, they have fallen the farthest. If the Spartans win the battle of the boards, let's chalk that up as a win, but at the same time, they have to show that they are better than a down Stanford team by a good margin. At the time of writing this, Michigan State should have a 87% chance of the win including their home court advantage. George Washington plays at St. Francis (PA) on Saturday. This is again, a team they should dominate, however, the Red Flash are a pretty decent team this year. They are picked anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the Northeast Conference and feature consensus all-conference guard, Junior Darshan Luckey who was their top scorer last season. Add in that they are playing at home and you have the recipe for an upset. Let's see if George Washington can show they are the better team, something they haven't done other than on the scoreboard against the lesser opponents. Chance of winning: 54% when you include the Red Flash home court advantage.
